ϟ GridGuard Risk Lab / MVP MODEL BETA
Central Arkansas • weather · NWS · SPC · soil · canopy · Entergy outages · SWPC
Central Arkansas / Field Report
Weather changes.
Stay ready.
Your local weather and power-risk outlook. Wind, rain, storm conditions and space weather—brought together in one practical field report.
Connecting to public data feeds…
Prototype, not a validated outage probability. Scores from 0–100 are relative risk indicators using transparent rules—not the percentage chance that your address loses power. Weights are not empirically calibrated.
SCORE vs. MODEL (BETA)
Heuristic score
—
0–100, live app logic
BETA · Model odds of a 1,000+ customer county outage in next 24h
—
loading model…
Threshold: max(1,000 customers, 1% of county customers) in EAGLE-I. Trained on Open-Meteo reanalysis (not issued forecasts) — offline skill is optimistic.
Next 24 hours
—
risk / 100
Awaiting live weather
The score will appear after weather data loads.
Peak: —Peak wind gust
—
mph, next 24h
72h antecedent rain
—
inches, past 72h
Peak ice accretion
—
est. inches, next 24h
Nearby Entergy out
—
customers ~25 km
What’s driving the risk
Waiting for live data.
Score is rebalanced and clamped to 0–100. Ice and warnings remain heavily weighted for Arkansas overhead lines.
48-hour risk outlook
Relative risk index • local time
NWS active alerts
Loading alerts…
api.weather.gov point alerts
SPC Day-1 outlook
Categorical risk at point
—
Loading SPC GeoJSON…
From SPC day1otlk_cat.lyr.geojson (CORS *). Point-in-polygon in the browser. Categories: TSTM / MRGL / SLGT / ENH / MDT / HIGH.
Environment & canopy
Soil moisture 0–1 cm
—
m³/m³
NLCD tree canopy
—
% · 2021 TCC
Leaf-on season
—
calendar heuristic
Sustained wind hrs
—
≥25 mph next 24h
Live outages & maps
Entergy near city
—
customers (layer query)
Entergy Arkansas total
—
sum numpeople where state=AR
Live counts from Entergy public ArcGIS MapServer when CORS allows.
Outage maps (verified links):Entergy Outage MapEntergy Storm CenterFirst Electric Cooperative outage mapFirst Electric — View Outages
Space-weather monitor
NOAA geomagnetic scale
—
G0–G5
Solar radio blackout
—
R0–R5; informational
Kp contributes only for major storms at Arkansas latitudes. R-scale is shown, not scored.
Space-weather feed not loaded.
Scenario assumptions Manual only
Not verified infrastructure data.
Medium
Unknown
How to interpret the score
0–24 · LowLimited weather-related exposure
25–49 · WatchSome potentially disruptive conditions
50–74 · ElevatedMultiple meaningful risk factors
75–100 · HighConditions warrant preparation
Data feeds and reliability
Open-Meteo hourly (+ past_days)Not loaded
Docs · soil_moisture_0_to_1cm, wind_speed_10m, lifted_index, convective_inhibition, apparent_temperature, weather_code/rain/showers; past_days=3 for antecedent rain.
NWS active alertsNot loaded
SPC Day-1 categorical outlook GeoJSONNot loaded
day1otlk_cat.lyr.geojson · CORS *
NLCD tree canopy (MRLC WMS GetFeatureInfo)Not loaded
nlcd_tcc_conus_2021_v2021-4 · CORS *
Entergy public ArcGIS outagesNot loaded
arcgis.entergy.datacapable.com Public/MapServer · CORS reflects Origin
NOAA SWPC Kp + scalesNot loaded