ϟ GridGuard Risk Lab / MVP
Central Arkansas • weather · NWS · SPC · soil · canopy · Entergy outages · SWPC
Power reliability intelligence

Will the power go out?

An experimental outage-risk indicator using transparent heuristics: wind (gust + sustained duration), antecedent and soil moisture, ice accretion, convective fields (CAPE/LI/CIN), SPC outlook, NWS alerts, leaf-on season, heat load, tree canopy, live Entergy outage counts, and geomagnetic storms. City-center forecasts—not circuit predictions.

Connecting to public data feeds…
Prototype, not a validated outage probability. Scores from 0–100 are relative risk indicators using transparent rules—not the percentage chance that your address loses power. Weights are not empirically calibrated.
Next 24 hours
—
risk / 100
Awaiting live weather

The score will appear after weather data loads.

Peak: —
Peak wind gust
—
mph, next 24h
72h antecedent rain
—
inches, past 72h
Peak ice accretion
—
est. inches, next 24h
Nearby Entergy out
—
customers ~25 km

Risk drivers

Waiting for live data.
Score is rebalanced and clamped to 0–100. Ice and warnings remain heavily weighted for Arkansas overhead lines.

48-hour risk outlook

Relative risk index • local time

NWS active alerts

Loading alerts…

api.weather.gov point alerts

SPC Day-1 outlook

Categorical risk at point
—
Loading SPC GeoJSON…

From SPC day1otlk_cat.lyr.geojson (CORS *). Point-in-polygon in the browser. Categories: TSTM / MRGL / SLGT / ENH / MDT / HIGH.

Environment & canopy

Soil moisture 0–1 cm
—
m³/m³
NLCD tree canopy
—
% · 2021 TCC
Leaf-on season
—
calendar heuristic
Sustained wind hrs
—
≥25 mph next 24h

Live outages & maps

Entergy near city
—
customers (layer query)
Entergy Arkansas total
—
sum numpeople where state=AR

Live counts from Entergy public ArcGIS MapServer when CORS allows.

Outage maps (verified links):Entergy Outage MapEntergy Storm CenterFirst Electric Cooperative outage mapFirst Electric — View Outages

Space-weather monitor

NOAA geomagnetic scale
—
G0–G5
Solar radio blackout
—
R0–R5; informational

Kp contributes only for major storms at Arkansas latitudes. R-scale is shown, not scored.

Space-weather feed not loaded.

Scenario assumptions Manual only

Not verified infrastructure data.

Medium
Unknown

How to interpret the score

0–24 · LowLimited weather-related exposure
25–49 · WatchSome potentially disruptive conditions
50–74 · ElevatedMultiple meaningful risk factors
75–100 · HighConditions warrant preparation

Data feeds and reliability

Open-Meteo hourly (+ past_days)Not loaded
Docs · soil_moisture_0_to_1cm, wind_speed_10m, lifted_index, convective_inhibition, apparent_temperature, weather_code/rain/showers; past_days=3 for antecedent rain.
NWS active alertsNot loaded
SPC Day-1 categorical outlook GeoJSONNot loaded
day1otlk_cat.lyr.geojson · CORS *
NLCD tree canopy (MRLC WMS GetFeatureInfo)Not loaded
nlcd_tcc_conus_2021_v2021-4 · CORS *
Entergy public ArcGIS outagesNot loaded
arcgis.entergy.datacapable.com Public/MapServer · CORS reflects Origin
NOAA SWPC Kp + scalesNot loaded