ϟ GridGuard Risk Lab / MVP MODEL BETA
Central Arkansas • weather · NWS · SPC · soil · canopy · Entergy outages · SWPC
Power reliability intelligence

Will the power go out?

An experimental outage-risk indicator using transparent heuristics: wind (gust + sustained duration), antecedent and soil moisture, ice accretion, convective fields (CAPE/LI/CIN), SPC outlook, NWS alerts, leaf-on season, heat load, tree canopy, live Entergy outage counts, and geomagnetic storms. City-center forecasts—not circuit predictions.

Connecting to public data feeds…
Prototype, not a validated outage probability. Scores from 0–100 are relative risk indicators using transparent rules—not the percentage chance that your address loses power. Weights are not empirically calibrated.
SCORE vs. MODEL (BETA)
Heuristic score
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0–100, live app logic
BETA · Model odds of a 1,000+ customer county outage in next 24h
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loading model…

Threshold: max(1,000 customers, 1% of county customers) in EAGLE-I. Trained on Open-Meteo reanalysis (not issued forecasts) — offline skill is optimistic.

Next 24 hours
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risk / 100
Awaiting live weather

The score will appear after weather data loads.

Peak: —
Peak wind gust
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mph, next 24h
72h antecedent rain
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inches, past 72h
Peak ice accretion
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est. inches, next 24h
Nearby Entergy out
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customers ~25 km

Risk drivers

Waiting for live data.
Score is rebalanced and clamped to 0–100. Ice and warnings remain heavily weighted for Arkansas overhead lines.

48-hour risk outlook

Relative risk index • local time

NWS active alerts

Loading alerts…

api.weather.gov point alerts

SPC Day-1 outlook

Categorical risk at point
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Loading SPC GeoJSON…

From SPC day1otlk_cat.lyr.geojson (CORS *). Point-in-polygon in the browser. Categories: TSTM / MRGL / SLGT / ENH / MDT / HIGH.

Environment & canopy

Soil moisture 0–1 cm
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m³/m³
NLCD tree canopy
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% · 2021 TCC
Leaf-on season
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calendar heuristic
Sustained wind hrs
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≥25 mph next 24h

Live outages & maps

Entergy near city
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customers (layer query)
Entergy Arkansas total
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sum numpeople where state=AR

Live counts from Entergy public ArcGIS MapServer when CORS allows.

Outage maps (verified links):Entergy Outage MapEntergy Storm CenterFirst Electric Cooperative outage mapFirst Electric — View Outages

Space-weather monitor

NOAA geomagnetic scale
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G0–G5
Solar radio blackout
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R0–R5; informational

Kp contributes only for major storms at Arkansas latitudes. R-scale is shown, not scored.

Space-weather feed not loaded.

Scenario assumptions Manual only

Not verified infrastructure data.

Medium
Unknown

How to interpret the score

0–24 · LowLimited weather-related exposure
25–49 · WatchSome potentially disruptive conditions
50–74 · ElevatedMultiple meaningful risk factors
75–100 · HighConditions warrant preparation

Data feeds and reliability

Open-Meteo hourly (+ past_days)Not loaded
Docs · soil_moisture_0_to_1cm, wind_speed_10m, lifted_index, convective_inhibition, apparent_temperature, weather_code/rain/showers; past_days=3 for antecedent rain.
NWS active alertsNot loaded
SPC Day-1 categorical outlook GeoJSONNot loaded
day1otlk_cat.lyr.geojson · CORS *
NLCD tree canopy (MRLC WMS GetFeatureInfo)Not loaded
nlcd_tcc_conus_2021_v2021-4 · CORS *
Entergy public ArcGIS outagesNot loaded
arcgis.entergy.datacapable.com Public/MapServer · CORS reflects Origin
NOAA SWPC Kp + scalesNot loaded